Market Trends
Historic Phoenix Housing Stats
December 8th, 2009 categories: Historic Neighborhoods, Market Trends
The first of the monthly reports about sales in the historic districts of Central Phoenix has been posted, see here: Phoenix Historic Districts Home Sales Overview. The districts are holding up well. Please see the report for more details.
Below are several other reports about the state of the Greater Phoenix real estate market.
November Homes Sales Data: An Overview of the Greater Phoenix Market.
Short Sale Pre-Foreclosure Real Estate Market Overview in Greater Phoenix
Residential Lender Owned Property Market in Greater Phoenix
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Phoenix Housing Market September 2009
October 4th, 2009 categories: Market Trends, Phoenix real estate
The last 3 years have been quite different from the 3 before that. It’s almost silly to say that because the evidence is so clear. It’s also a normal though a more severe real estate cycle.
Over at Phoenix Market Trends we put up a lot of market reports, about 6-12 per month from an overview of Greater Phoenix to more specific reports.
The most recent Greater Phoenix housing market report shows sales are strong in Greater Phoenix. They are down a bit, but for this time of year the numbers are quite nice.
Since this weblog focuses on the urban core we encourage you to read housing reports at Phoenix Market Trends for a wider view of the Phoenix market.
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Central Phoenix Real Estate Sales Data
November 9th, 2008 categories: Market Trends
Real Estate Confluence will rarely have housing stats except for an occasional look at what’s going on in Downtown, Midtown Phoenix but we have extensive data, specific studies, commentary and reviews at Phoenix Market Trends.
In fact, we have just updated that sales data to include October sales. Review all the individual Phoenix housing market reports.
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Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market and a Forecast for the Near Future
August 24th, 2008 categories: Market Trends, Phoenix real estate
We have been getting a lot of questions about the current market and the forecast for 2009 and I bet this question is tops on many peoples minds.
The answer really depends on whom you ask because, it’s all a guess, an educated guess, but it still involves an abysmal jump into the crystal ball. Some say that we’re in for further corrections while others say that we are at or near the bottom.
The answer often depends on the property type, the location and your plans, so the answer is further complicated. The bottoming of the market is a long process and there is just so much to consider that is going on currently and things that are ahead. Just look at the big change that appeared a few weeks ago, namely the recent Housing Bill that was passed.
Then there are the continuing troubles at Freddie-Mac and Fannie-Mae: the high inflation rate; the slowing of money changing hands and a slowing global economy. What will the impact be? Plus other things that have yet to happen as a result of this correction.
Inventory is very important as an indicator of the market trends. While the lack of financing has hurt the market the total vicious circle created an influx of inventory which was exasperated by the lack of financing. Current inventory is down from the high of 58,334 experienced in October 2007.
This current number of 53,725 (8/21/08) represents 9 months of inventory. Months of inventory hit a peak at 21 months. Inventory has been dropping partially thanks to the more buoyant buyer market and the lower number of new listings to the market. In addition new home construction is at at 17 year low. This is all good since the worst that can happen is for more homes to be built while so many still stay vacant waiting for an owner occupant buyer. Take a look at the unit sales per month over the last several quarters. (Greater Phoenix Housing Market Data July 2008 ) Sales are by no means at the 2005 levels but we should really discard the last frantic peaks and consider the long term trend. For July sales are up close to 40% over the same period last year.
This increased interest from buyers is a result of the healthy correction in pricing. The hefty declines in housing prices means that homes are within reach of many more buyers. In fact the first time home buyer or the starter home market is very active indeed. It’s the segment driving the sales now. (Phoenix Starter Home Sales)
The median home price has dropped to $196,000 in the valley while it has dropped more in the outer cities like in -21% Goodyear, -16% in Surprise, -27% in Queen Creek, -15% Glendale, -17% Gilbert and -17% in Chandler. (Change annualized. The decline much higher on a month to month change) The peak for pricing was $360,000 in 5/2005.
While pricing in most areas continues to decline there are some areas which have seen recent and mid term increases. Lower prices, increased demand, lower inventory are all indicators of stability and following stability we’ll have growth in most cases.
All to often buyers and investors forget how crucial financing is, in real estate. I have always stressed this with my clients. Often the financing is more important than the property itself. One of the major benefits of real estate is leverage. This leverage is achieved with financing and if it’s the wrong type of financing or it can’t be obtained then the investment/purchase may not make sense. Even people who purchased at the peak but had good financing can often whether this corrections unlike so many that got the wrong loan. More so the individual elements of financing need to be considered, the terms along with timing the market.
Depending on your hold time and exist strategy taking advantage of the current interest rates may make more sense then waiting for additional declines if there is a high risk of interest rates increases. So, unless you’re buying with cash take into account all factors, more so if you’re building a real estate portfolio but also if you’re buying a home to live in.
No one knows where mortgage rates are heading but we have been in a multi year low and they will be heading higher for many reasons of which I won’t go in here.
The Phoenix real estate market is in the midst of a drastic change. Prices are very low. In some areas they have not been this low since the early years of this decade. Long term buyers are starting to see the opportunity for long term growth.
Take into consideration the inflation of building materials and the increasing global demand for them. Many of the homes that can be purchase now are well below the replacement cost. Other homes sit on land which itself is of very high value.
Big money is sitting on the sidelines.
There is a lot of big money sitting on the sidelines just waiting for the right moment and that moment is approaching. This money is coming from wealthy individuals to large hedge funds. Most won’t be buying individual homes except for maybe foreclosed homes in bulk but they will be buying up entire subdivisions, unfinished projects and other opportunities. There are individual groups as well who have pooled their money and are beginning the exploratory process. I know because I’m getting the multiple calls. Any sort of money that will roll through the real estate market is good.
Greater Phoenix is a very strong city with a bright future and sound fundamentals; Phoenix is in demand. This along with the lower prices, low interest rates, a decent rental market and increasing demand makes for a very sound opportunity that we may not see for a while. It may be prudent to wait but it may not.
It’s difficult to say but take into account all that I have covered above and maybe it’s right. Just don’t try to time the market. Remember that most people buy high and sell low. Most do it because of fear, but that is the worst emotion on which to base such a decision. This corrections will probably be a long one and it’s difficult to say at which stage of the cycle were in. Still, the fundamentals for Phoenix valley are very good so we should be in strong position as the cycle turns up again.
If you have specific questions please don’t hesitate to contact us. We love to hear from our reader and we’d love to have you as a client.
Original Post: PMT
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Phoenix Uptown, Midtown, Downtown Housing Market July 2008
August 18th, 2008 categories: Market Trends, Phoenix real estate
Sales or all property types in Phoenix Central are up to 63 in July from the very bleak 28 in December 2007 but they are still down from last year despite the fact that sales for Greater Phoenix were up 39% from last year. The reason sales in Central Phoenix are down is because the bulk of the market right now are sales up to $240,000 which represent 67% of all sales. There are very few homes in Central Phoenix in that price range. Even starter homes are more expensive.
The table above show all sales by zip code with the number of sales in each zip code, the average days on the market and the average sales price.
The table below is segregated by property style in the same zip codes above. The bulk of the sales were single family homes but there are a lot of condos, townhomes, lots and patio homes selling as well.
Popular Links:
Search for homes in Central Phoenix
Greater Phoenix Housing Market
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What Do Lending Changes Mean for You?
July 17th, 2008 categories: Market Trends
It appears we can expect home loans to be back to Full Doc only by late 2009. See the changes approved by the Federal Reserve
This is like it was in the old days 20 years ago. There may some versions of Limited Documentation but the good old Stated Income Loans may be difficult to find by late 2009.
This maybe a good time to get off the fence if you’re Self Employed/Stated Income type buyers?
Start looking for homes in Phoenix.
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Home Sales Trends 85020 | East Sunnyslope
July 9th, 2008 categories: Market Trends
The Sunnyslope area has not been spared the decreasing prices and is not beyond the trend in the valley. That trend being increased home sales, steady days on the market and lower median home prices. In 85020 which is East Sunnyslope and part North Central Phoenix the median price was $162,750.
Days on the market increased as well after a drop in May.
The distribution of sales between starter homes, move up homes and luxury homes is not much different then the valley but unlike the valley as a whole luxury home sales increased. Its the move up homes which have seen a large decrease in sales. The increase in starter home sales in a very good sign of things to come. It is this market where loans have been more difficult to obtain, so more home selling means that at lease to some extent there is financing out there.
Despite the move up homes still being below the Jumbo loan limits the sales decreased. That limit is $417,000; any loan over $417,000 is a jumbo loan and is subject to higher interest rates.
Below are two graphs for homes built from 1999 onwards in 85020 and grid M34. This is the area associated with the newer home developments near the Phoenix Mountains. The list to sales price ratio has been on a downward trend until March 2008. Since then that ratio has increased but only slightly. I have noticed that prices have come down. This would be a good explanation of higher ratio.
Most of the newer homes in this area are in the luxury home bracket and upper move-up bracket. Since the turnover has not been high enough due to lack of supply the graph below is not a fair representation of the sales.
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Phoenix Uptown | North Central Phoenix Home Sales News
July 7th, 2008 categories: Market Trends, Uptown Phoenix
After a long 5 month downward trend in median price in North Central Phoenix or Uptown Phoenix, the point has come when the median price has come back up above $200,000 from its low of $196,000 in May 2008.
A total of 44 homes sold in June 2008 in zip codes 85012, 85013, 85014 or North Central Phoenix. in the Central Corridor itself 6 home sold with the average price of $340,284. Note also that the homes that did sell in the Central Corridor were on the market an average of over 280 days while the average for North Central Phoenix was 135 days.
On other important fact to note is that 12 of the 44 homes on the market sold at 100% of their asking price. This is important but in no way does it give any insight into the details of the market. Many of these homes could have been originally listed for more. Still the average list to sales ratio is 96.8%. That’s not too bad.
If you would like a more detailed analysis of your neighborhood in preparation for a sale or purchase please contact at 602.358.1392 or by our contact form.
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Phoenix Metro May 2008 Home Resale Numbers Including Foreclosure Sales.
June 21st, 2008 categories: Market Trends, Phoenix real estate
ASU Polytechnic has put out their May 2008 Greater Phoenix data. This data is derived from different sources, then the Phoenix resale numbers we presented at Phoenix Market Trends for May, which come from the ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service).
ASU data separates regular sales from foreclosed sales.
In May 2008, 5,740 home sold, these are resale homes. A total of 1,475 homes out of the total were foreclosed transaction. This represents 25% of all home sold. Contrast this with 2007 when 5.8% of the homes sold were foreclosed sales in Maricopa County.
In Phoenix the total homes sold were 1,420 with a break down of 940 “traditional sales” and 480 foreclosed sales, or 34% were foreclosure sales. That’s quite a lot of homes.
(Graph is from ASU Realty Studies)
Compare the above numbers to 2007, when a total of 1,405 homes sold in May but only 6% were foreclosed sales (85). In most cities the amount of foreclosed sales increased with cities like Tempe, Scottsdale and Sun City with the lowest percentage of foreclosed sales to normal sales and cities like Avondale, Phoenix, Glendale and several others with the most.
While sales were about equal to those last year, Jay Butler states, “However, in a weak economy, many households now will not have the needed income to save their homes, even with a new mortgage payment plan.”
Indeed, the economy seems to be slowing down and inflation on the increase and the dollar is weak, not to mention the price of gasoline and food, all of which is having a direct effect on the turnover of money and the less money turns over the worse everyone will be off.
Despite the difficult road ahead there is no reason not to buy a home or invest in real estate, quite the contrary. If a buyer or investor has the resources and availability of financing this may be the period, which may be now and for the next few quarters, purchase properties that will provide a good return and possibly a very good return in the long run.
Look for homes on our advanced Phoenix MAP MLS Search
Learn more about investing in Phoenix real estate.
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Phoenix Real Estate Homes Sales Update
June 17th, 2008 categories: Market Trends
The ARMLS Greater Phoenix home resale numbers for May 2008 are in.
In May 2008 a total of 5,337 single family homes sold. This is down only 2.7% from 2007. That’s not that bad. What is interesting is that the days on the market have gone down from 98 last year to 90 this year. Not much of a difference but its down none the less.
While homes sales are close to 2007 numbers the median price dropped from $305,000 in 2007 to $249,900 in 2008. That is an 18% drop in the median home price.
A total of 50,483 homes were listed in May compared to 51,013 last year. So inventory is down to 9 months or about the same as last year.
We’ll have more information over the next few days, including some graphs.
from: phoenixmarkettrends.com
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